CITYLIFE INVESTOR NEWS
The Australian Investor and Property Buyers
Newsletter
June 15, 2009
IN THIS ISSUE:
1.
Australian House Prices to rise by up to 22%
2.
Sydney
3.
Melbourne
4.
Brisbane
5.
Perth
6.
Other cities
1. AUSTRALIAN house prices will rise by up to 22%
per cent over the next three years, buoyed by the "current heat" in the
market surrounding first home buyers.
That's the forecast from research
house BIS Shrapnel's Residential Property Prospects report -
based on data from the Real Estate Institute - released today.
”The conditions
are ripe for a sustained recovery in residential property
prices,” according to BIS Shrapnel's Residential Property
Prospects, 2009 to 2012, report.
BIS
Shrapnel's Angie Zigomanis said activity in the lower end of
the market - buoyed by the boost to the first home owners grant and low
interest rates - were generating “green shoots” of
recovery.
The
report says average house prices in most capital cities will grow by
between 11 and 19 per cent over the next three
years.
Mr
Zigomanis, who said actual prices were more indicative than prices
adjusted for inflation, predicts the boost to the first home owners
grant combined with low interest rates would kick start further
activity in the “upgrading” market.
“If
the first home buyers are in the market buying, someone is selling it
to them,” he said.
“We're
expecting that increased first home buyers activity to lead through to
stronger upgrading demand for people upgrading to their next
property,” he said.
Mr
Zigomanis said once the (boost to the) first home owners grant expires,
and first home buyers drop back out of the market, there's
enough activity in the market so it becomes self-sustaining.
The
boost to the first home owners grant will finish at the end of this
year.
“Everything's
pointed at people jumping in the market”.
“At
the moment we're dealing with a confidence issue,”
he said.
The
Government forecast in its May Budget that unemployment will rise to
8.5 per cent by mid-2011..
BIS
Shrapnel predicts unemployment to peak “somewhere between 7
and 8 per cent” mid next year.
Among the state capitals, Sydney, Melbourne
and Adelaide will show the strongest price growth over the next three
years, at 19 per cent.
More moderate growth is expected in
Brisbane, Hobart, and Canberra, while price growth in Perth and Darwin
is expected to be weak as the local economies of these cities are
impacted by a decline in investment spending in the resources sector.
BIS Shrapnel estimates Sydney's median house
price at June 2009 to be $530,000, and predicts it will rise by
mid-2012 to $630,000. Melbourne's current median house price is
estimated at $425,000, rising to $507,000 by June 2012.
.
Outlook
via region, according to BIS Shrapnel
2.Sydney
-
Median house price $530,000 in June 2009
-
New home construction at 50-year lows
-
Total price growth forecast at 19 per cent to 2012
3. Melbourne
-
Median house price $425,000 in June 2009-06-12
-
A fall of 6 per cent for the financial year
-
Pick up in “upgrader” activity expected
-
Nearly 20 per cent increase in prices to 2012
3.
Brisbane
-
Median house price $391,000 in June 2009
-
Down 7 per cent for financial year
-
Interstate migration to boost modest price growth
-
House prices to rise by 16 per cent to 2012
4. Perth
-
Market began slowing in 2007, ahead of eastern states
-
Median house price tripled in five years to 2006
-
Affordability improving; price decline stabilising
-
Median house price $425,000 in June 2009
-
House prices to increase by 12 per cent to 2012
5.
Other cities:
Gold Coast and Sunshine
Coast
-
House prices generally move in tandem with Brisbane
-
Expected to grow by 14 per cent to 2011
-
Price growth to lag slightly behind Brisbane
Adelaide
-
Experienced double-digit growth to 2007
-
Now down 3 per cent to $360,000 in June 2009
-
Lowest median house price of mainland state capitals
-
Incentives “having the greatest financial impact”
-
Tipped to jump 19 per cent to 2012
Hobart
-
Median house price declined marginally in 2008
-
Increased interstate migration attributed to
“tree-change” mentality
-
Average house price $335,000 in June 2009
-
To jump 15 per cent in the next three years to 2012.
Darwin
-
Only capital city to record a rise in median house prices in 2008
-
Average house price $470,000 in June 2009
-
NT reliant on oil, gas; hasn't weakened as much as other
economies
-
Gap in investments to kill short-term price growth
-
To grow by 11 per cent in three years to 2012
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